The five factors
Interest Rates
-29
Growth
+15
Positioning
+40
Risk Mood
-32
Model versus price
{'state': 'inline', 'label': 'Broadly in line', 'detail': 'No strong divergence: the -3 fundamental read and the +0.4% three-month move on a trade-weighted basis are roughly consistent.'}
The readings behind it
| Indicator | Latest | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term rate | 3.63% | 2026-08-13 |
| Real rate (after inflation) | +0.09% (3.5% CPI) | 2026-08-13 |
| 10-year yield | 4.63% | 2026-08-13 |
| Real 10-year (after inflation) | +1.09% (3.5% CPI) | 2026-08-13 |
| Unemployment | 4.1% | 2026-07-01 |
| Fund positioning | 68th pctile | derived |
| 3-month move vs USD | +0.4% | None |
| Valuation (vs 1-yr norm) | near fair value | None |
Strength gap against the other majors
A positive gap means the US Dollar scores higher than the other side of the pair right now.