NZD

New Zealand Dollar Strength

-2 Neutral – stable Rank #4 of 8

Price vs fundamentals Broadly in line No strong divergence: the -2 fundamental read and the -0.7% three-month move against the dollar are roughly consistent.

The New Zealand Dollar sits in the middle of the pack at #4, scoring -2 — neither clearly strong nor weak. Positioning is supportive: relative to the other majors, large speculators are leaning in favour of the New Zealand Dollar rather than against it. Broader risk appetite is positive, which helps the New Zealand Dollar. As a currency tied to global growth and trade activity, it tends to strengthen when investors feel confident and weaken when they retreat to safety. Weak farm goods like dairy prices are an additional drag. As a commodity-linked currency, the New Zealand Dollar is sensitive to its export basket, and falling prices there erode the terms of trade. On a valuation basis, it looks cheap versus its own one-year range, which may help cushion the downside from here.

What's driving it

Pillar breakdown

Interest Rates +3

Positioning +17

Risk Mood +21

Commodities -60

Underlying data

Short-term rate2.63%as of 2026-05-01

Real rate (after inflation)+0.10% (2.5% CPI)as of 2026-05-01

10-year yield4.68%as of 2026-05-01

Real 10-year (after inflation)+2.15% (2.5% CPI)as of 2026-05-01

Fund positioning0th pctileas of 2026-06-23

Commodity momentum-1.34σas of 2026-07-01

3-month move vs USD-0.7%

Valuation (vs 1-yr norm)historically cheap

Historic Macro Strength Trend

+100+500−50−100

NZD vs the other majors

Strength gap — click for the full pair

EUR/NZD +32 NZD stronger NZD/CAD +28 NZD stronger NZD/CHF +14 NZD stronger GBP/NZD +12 NZD stronger NZD/USD -9 NZD weaker NZD/JPY -21 NZD weaker AUD/NZD -24 NZD weaker

All currencies

Click any currency to see its full breakdown

USD View strength → EUR View strength → GBP View strength → JPY View strength → CHF View strength → CAD View strength → AUD View strength →

Research on NZD

2026-06-26

The Kiwi Hit a 7-Month Low — While the RBNZ Lines Up a Rate Hike: What's Really Driving the New Zealand Dollar

The RBNZ is hawkish and may hike in July, yet NZD/USD just hit a 7-month low near 0.565. Here's the fundamental, multi-f…

2026-06-13

What Drives the New Zealand Dollar (NZD)? The Key Macro Factors

The NZD is driven by dairy commodity prices, China demand, RBNZ interest rate differentials, and global risk sentiment —…

2026-05-16

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD): Terms of Trade Explained

Commodity currencies — the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar — rise and fall with their countri…

2026-07-02

Kevin Warsh's Global Debut: What the New Fed Chair's 'Prices Are Too High' Means for the Dollar

In his first international appearance as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh said prices are 'too high' and ruled out tolerating infl…

NZD strength — frequently asked

Is the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strong or weak right now?

As of the latest update, the New Zealand Dollar scores -2 on PIPTHEORY's macro currency strength meter (Neutral), ranking #4 of the 8 major currencies. The score refreshes every 4 hours.

What drives the New Zealand Dollar?

PIPTHEORY scores the New Zealand Dollar across five macro factors: interest rates, economic growth, speculative positioning, risk sentiment and commodity exposure. The 'What's driving it' breakdown above shows how each factor is contributing now.

How is NZD currency strength measured?

Each currency is scored from -100 (very weak) to +100 (very strong) relative to the other majors, using a mechanical model. The same inputs always produce the same score, so the reading never contradicts itself from one day to the next.

How often is the NZD strength score updated?

Every four hours, as fresh central-bank, economic and market data is released.